If it walks like a party and it quacks like a party
Circumstances are forcing Independents to behave like a de facto party
A half dozen Independents are looking to form some loose alliance to contest the next general election - they're talking about an alliance instead of a party, there won't be a whip, it's not that clear what their agreed policies will be, their focus is on securing a stronger bargaining position for themselves when the next government is being formed as well as better speaking rights in the new Dail. They're not the only ones: other alliances of Independents are being talked about. Michael Fitzmaurice is looking to set up an actual party. Opinion polls report a large cohort ready to vote independent and also that no major party is going to be strong enough to form a government on its own. A government looking for the support of independents in return for cabinet seats seems the most likely election outcome.
As you've probably guessed that's also a description of an earlier time - the run-up to the 2016 general election.
As you can probably also guess there are a lot of lessons to be learned from this earlier dry run. It ended in collapse and the break up of the main group - they called themselves the Independent Alliance. That didn't surprise anyone at the time: a group of disparate politicians making individual localised demands and whose voters by definition had had enough of political parties was always going to be a fragile creation. They had nothing in common except a desire to leverage their power as individuals and create a stronger bargaining position. Bringing them together was an unnatural imposition - they were, after all, Independents
That was then, this is now and to coin a phrase "This time is different".
Today the political forces acting on Independents are forcing them together, making them behave like a party despite their natural inclination to go their own way. Being a sole trader is going to be what takes an effort. Behaving like you would if you were in a party is increasingly the natural option. All will be explained below.
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools…
In 2016 the election took place in February and the government wasn't formed until April, 63 days later. We ended up with the Enda Kenny led government that depended on nine independents, six of whom were made ministers, and which was supported in a confidence and supply arrangement by Fianna Fail from the opposition benches
In March of the previous year 5 TDs including Shane Ross (plus two senators) had organized themselves under the label of “The Independent Alliance”. They famously had no whip and no policies, it was simply a means of pooling their political power to negotiate on a stronger basis with whoever would be forming a government after the election
Just after the election a group called the Rural Five - including Mattie McGrath - came together in order to secure speaking rights in the Dail. This group had a mostly Fianna Fail background whereas the Independent Alliance were more Fine Gael.
Government formation took a long time, the public became annoyed by how long it was taking and both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael tried to put the blame for the delay on the Independents - Independents have no responsibility and no influence, a vote for an Independent is a wasted vote. The Independents retaliated by withdrawing from the process - 14 of them signed the "Ag House" agreement which told Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to get on with it and only contact the Independents when they had worked out some stable arrangement.
Hard to believe now but a Fianna Fail, Fine Gael coalition was too outlandish and unpalatable to party members - FF ones especially - to be a real runner.
The other option - a major party propped up by Independents and supported from opposition - seemed like a recipe for disaster for the party in government. They would be picked at from the opposition benches by the other main party and the instability of the arrangement would undermine and sap the governing party over the course of what would surely be a short time in power and they would be much reduced at the following election. It turned out Fine Gael were more ready to take this chance then Fianna Fail. It also helped that Kenny wanted to be the first FG leader to be re-elected as Taoiseach.
Eventually this is what was settled on. The Independent Alliance plus four more Independents entered into a minority government with Fine Gael, supported on a confidence and supply basis by FF from the opposition benches. The Independents were rewarded with three ministerial posts and three junior ministerial posts.
In addition Zappone (who wasn't in the Alliance) got a commitment for the referendum to Repeal the 8th. Shane Ross got 6 Garda stations including Stepaside kept open. Halligan got a second cardiac facility in Waterford. Finian McGrath got a cystic fibrosis unit at Beaumont. And more
Securing that grab-bag of deals was the high point for the Independent Alliance. Things just started to break up from then on and natural centrifugal forces took over. Craughwell hadn't been included in negotiations at all because he was a Senator and so he left the Alliance. Zappone (again not a member of the Alliance) had broken with all the other Independents early on in order to vote for Kenny during the government formation period and secure herself a cabinet seat. Fitzmaurice didn't get what he needed on access to bogs for turf cutters and so he was dumped by the Alliance in order to get their deal over the line. Later, once they were in government, there was some nonsense about three of them taking a trip to Pyongyang to bring peace to North Korea. Canney, having also had to give up his junior ministerial position, left soon after. Following that Boxer Moran decided to go his own way. By the time of the next election, McGrath and Halligan decided not to run again leaving only Shane Ross - who didn't even run as an Independent Alliance candidate. Ross lost his seat.
Herding cats
You could look at this and find it kind of depressing. Especially if you were hoping for Independents to be the ones to give a voice to the right in the next Dail.
In fact it all seems to bear out the criticisms that many have of the role of Independents in Irish politics.
As National Party thinkers and any other populist will tell you, the problem with the Independents is that
+ they have no ideology
+ they think locally not nationally
+ they have disparate interests - no common agenda
+ they have no natural cohesion - any attempt to organize them will be strained and prone to break up
+ they are elected as outsiders and jeopardize their own futures by propping up a government
These are historically valid criticisms. It's a reasonable view of how independent TDs have operated over the last 20 or 30 years. But it misses something extraordinary about our current political climate. As advertised, this time is different. There is something about the situation now that undoes each of those criticisms. And that is the existence of a large section of the public who are focused on the same small set of issues and who are not being given a voice by either government or opposition parties.
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Most of the Independents don't have any ideology. But they do have one thing they believe in which is central to their political existence; they listen to their voters. What their voters want is what they want. No room for political flights of fancy, no such thing as "educating the voter". If the people who vote for them want something that's gospel.
The current domination of the political discussion by the immigration question and the green agenda means this is what they're hearing in every community.
It means that no longer does one community want a hospital and another one turf cutting rights and another one a second cardiac unit or garda stations kept open. Now they all have the same problems at a local level. What's wanted is the same from place to place - more GP appointments, more school places, more accommodation available to rent and buy, relief from a grinding green agenda. Wherever they are in the country the Independents are hearing the same set of problems.
And with 75% opposed to us taking in more refugees and the whole of rural Ireland opposed to this gung ho green agenda the solutions the voters want in each of those constituencies is the same from Kerry to Donegal from Wexford to Galway.
The problems being faced by voters in each locality have solutions that need to be implemented on a national level - the borders need to be policed and the benefit system made less attractive to economic refugees. EU Green guidelines need to be opposed, derogations obtained, self imposed Treaty targets neglected. A national agenda not a local one has been forced on Independents.
A common set of issues, a policy agenda demanding changes on a national level rather than a local one. If it walks like a party and it quacks like a party...
Looked at in this light the struggle within the Farmers Alliance over whether they should go forward as a party or just an alliance of Independents becomes less important. The outcome won't be much different. Same applies to the divergence between Michael Fitzmaurice who wants to form a party and the Rural Independents who seem to favour a looser organisation. Functionally speaking how different would they be.
In 2015 the political reality was a collection of disparate Independents with different needs and different motivations. The Independent Alliance was an attempt to force some artificial unnatural structure on them for the purpose of securing a better negotiating position. That Heath Robinson contraption eventually succumbed to its internal contradictions and fell apart.
In 2023 the political reality is the opposite; it's forcing these Independents to adopt a common purpose. This time round the idea of ignoring what they have in common is what seems strained, unnatural and unsustainable
It's almost as if in the country at the moment the conditions for a party to be formed are so strong that people are being gathered into a de facto party despite themselves.
Maybe given our Single Transferable Vote PR system and, as a consequence, our unparalleled number of Independents in parliament it had to happen this way in Ireland rather than having a party of the right be successful like in the rest of europe with their list systems. Maybe that's the natural path dissent takes under our political system.
Speaking of dissent, one bonus is that this presents Independents with a solution to a perpetual problem. They get elected on an anti establishment ticket but have to support the government in order to get a deal done which in turn leads to them losing the seat at the following election. Assuming Fianna Fail and Fine Gael are still going to be as immigrant friendly at the time of the next election, and assuming the Shinners have not reversed course completely by then, immigration and opposition to the green agenda will still be an anti-establishment stance. Meaning these Independents would be able to sit in cabinet, make the demands their constituents want and still seem like outsiders.
Really?
Finally, after so much speculation and conjecture, lets subject all of this to some kind of test. Here's a question that might reasonably be asked about the above. If these are the political forces currently acting on Independents and we have 19 (genuine) Independents in the Dail shouldn't we be seeing these effects already? Where's the common agenda, where's this national perspective being exhibited by Independents right now? Why aren't we hearing this from them already?
Good question.
Firstly we're not hearing much from the Independents because the current government doesn't depend on them. The Greens are in that role and hats off to them for showing how well that dependency can be exploited.
It also shows the element of risk there is in relying on the Independents to push our agenda. Its likely that the next government will depend on Independents but by no means guaranteed. That said the Greens and small socialist parties may not be there next time for the government to do deals with - SF are coming for their seats. The Independents are likely to be the only king makers left standing.
Secondly they mightn't be at the centre of power in the current Dail, and so we don't hear from them as much, but examine the record and you'll see the Independents have indeed moved to support our agenda en masse.
There are the six Rural Independents for whom no case needs to be made
There is Noel Grealish
There is Michael Fitzmaurice
There is Ray McSharry
people are afraid to question Government policy on housing refugees in case they are labelled racist
There is Michael McNamara
There is Verona Murphy
There is Matt Shanahan
40% of asylum seekers destroy or refuse to hand over their passports
There's even pro immigrant socialist Thomas Pringle
Pringle calls for proper consultation prior to the arrival of refugees
(That still leaves seven genuine Independents, but apart from Canney and Fitzpatrick there'd be fairly obvious explanations for each of them to be holding back - Lefties, party loyalty, not running again etc.)
On the one road
All singing in unison, all focused on the same issues, national issues, and all of them having no other option because it's what their voters overwhelmingly want.
Just don't call it a party.